Three names today, with a caveat. The broad market reading is a strong 88, but all five leading groups are slowing and only eleven of thirty-nine are rising. The analyst-news and options-flow cross-checks were not available this run, so none of the three names has been checked for a catalyst, and the overbought reading did not run. The record: fifty-seven tracked picks as of the last re-price on October 8, 1.04% behind the index on average, with 25 of 57 beating it.
The broad market reading is 88 with volatility at 15.3 and 73% breadth, which on its own allows a full list. Underneath it, all five strongest groups are decelerating (cloud, shipping, software, energy, AI) and only 11 of 39 groups are rising, 28%. The list is capped at three.
Cloud and software dominate momentum but are slowing hard, and most of the Stage 2 stocks at 52-week highs are technology names. Two of them, OKTA and FTNT, are already carried from earlier flags, and the rest were cut by the three-name cap and the one-per-sector rule rather than on evidence, so the list is deliberately spread across financials, health care and industrials.
What did not run today: the analyst and news cross-check and the options-flow check were unavailable, and the overbought (RSI) check did not run. None of the three names has been checked for a catalyst. Treat each as a screen result, not a confirmed setup.
Cloud (+8.68), shipping (+8.35) and software (+8.24) top the momentum table, with energy (+3.91) and AI (+3.47) next. Every one of them is decelerating, cloud most steeply at −39.8, software at −29.8 and shipping at −28.3. Technology names make up most of the Stage 2 universe at 52-week highs, but that leadership is fading fast.
The finalists sit outside the leaders. Health care is mildly positive and accelerating (+0.58, acceleration +3.27) and industrials is negative but accelerating (−2.58, acceleration +3.18), which reads as early rotation. Financials is negative (−1.09), so XP is not in a leading group.
Highest relative strength of the three, with the biggest jump. Relative strength 60.28, stage 2, a perfect 10/10 on stage scores, six weeks since entering Stage 2, and 0.09% below its 52-week high. Market cap $15.3B, screen score 71.9. Caveats: relative strength jumped 50.7 points in a week, which is abrupt, and its sector (Financials, momentum −1.09) is not a leading group. It is not in the crossover universe, so there is no timing confirmation either way. Not catalyst-checked, and the overbought check did not run.
The steadiest profile of the three. Relative strength 60.21 (up 4.4 on the week), stage 2, 9/10 stage scores, twenty-three weeks since entering Stage 2 and 1.18% below its 52-week high. Market cap $7.9B, screen score 67.7. Its sector is mildly positive and accelerating. Caveats: down 0.82% on the session, not in the crossover universe, not catalyst-checked, and the overbought check did not run.
The lowest relative strength of the three, in a sector turning up. Relative strength 46.21 (up 7.8 on the week), stage 2, with a daily stage score (8) below the weekly (10), twenty-three weeks since entering Stage 2 and 3.18% below its 52-week high. Market cap $5.9B, screen score 67.0. It also appears in today's rotation gems. Industrials momentum is negative but accelerating, which reads as early rotation. Caveats: down 1.55% on the session, the weakest daily structure of the three, not in the crossover universe, not catalyst-checked, and the overbought check did not run.
The income screens were rebuilt this run: 652 cash-secured puts across 156 names and 9 unique bull put spreads (17 before de-duplication, with 11 diamond picks). No structure is available for XP, HNGE or XMTR. That is expected rather than a failure: the income screens want high-volatility large caps, and the Stage 2 funnel produces mid-cap momentum names. Today's diamond put names were IREN, SPCX, NBIS, TSLA, USO, META and ASTS, none of which is a Stage 2 finalist.
| Cohort | Mean alpha | Median | Beat SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 · 7 | +4.56% | +2.16% | 4/7 | CVI +40.1 carries it |
| 2026-09-01 · 7 | −1.53% | +2.94% | 4/7 | mean and median disagree |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 | −12.83% | −11.55% | 0/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-03 · 3 | −9.14% | −8.44% | 0/3 | CRGY, ZYME, PFE |
| 2026-09-08 · 3 | −2.96% | −7.40% | 1/3 | ELPC the only winner |
| 2026-09-11 · 3 | −1.78% | −3.07% | 1/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-15 · 3 | −9.65% | −9.63% | 0/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-16 · 2 | +2.50% | +2.50% | 1/2 | MPC flagged here, +12.0% |
| 2026-09-17 · 3 | +10.58% | +6.52% | 3/3 | best cohort |
| 2026-09-18 · 2 | −2.50% | −2.50% | 0/2 | ABCL, CMBT |
| 2026-09-21 · 3 | +8.06% | +7.91% | 3/3 | RBRK, ALAB, NBIS |
| 2026-09-23 · 3 | −3.32% | −2.51% | 1/3 | RNG, MRNA, OMER |
| 2026-09-25 · 2 | −0.64% | −0.64% | 1/2 | SN, LCUT |
| 2026-09-28 · 3 | −7.09% | −4.87% | 0/3 | DGII, HUM, RVMD |
| 2026-09-30 · 1 | −1.96% | −1.96% | 0/1 | AMN |
| 2026-10-02 · 2 | −0.38% | −0.38% | 1/2 | SMTC, NAT |
| 2026-10-05 · 3 | +3.12% | +2.99% | 2/3 | IMOS, NTAP, DAC |
| 2026-10-06 · 3 | −0.58% | +1.05% | 2/3 | OKTA, FTNT, CRL |
| 2026-10-07 · 1 | +0.30% | +0.30% | 1/1 | AMD, one session old |
| All 57 | −1.04% | −1.87% | 25/57 | trimmed −1.34% · −59.2 pts |
| 2026-10-08 · 2 | — | — | — | PAYS, MPC · not yet re-priced |
| 2026-10-12 · 3 | — | — | — | XP, HNGE, XMTR · flagged today |
2026-09-02 at −12.8% and 2026-09-15 at −9.7%, neither with a single name beating the index. Both were three energy names flagged on one day. That is the single clearest pattern in nineteen sessions, and it is why energy-only lists are avoided.
The tails remain large and cut both ways. The best two names (CVI +40.1, TRMD +21.8) and the worst two (GEN −28.6, PRGS −21.4) are each worth about 60 points. Remove the best two and the book is 2.20% behind; remove the worst two and it is 0.17% behind. The trimmed mean of −1.34% is the honest figure, and the book is still behind its benchmark.