Three names, and for the first time since this desk started the list is not led by Energy. Money is rotating into technology: semiconductors have put on ten percent in a week and institutions are running sixty-three percent buy-side in the sector. The regime reading clears comfortably, but every leading sector is still decelerating, so the list is capped at three. Two chip names that would have qualified were excluded for being up more than eight percent before lunch. And a rule this page announced on Friday is being withdrawn today — it did not survive its own control test.
The full scan refreshed this morning: the core stage list, the signal screener, the sector table, the rotation list, the trend scan and both options-income tables are all current as of 10:41 ET. Two outside research feeds — analyst ratings and institutional options flow — could not be reached this session, so the finalist notes below rest on price, trend and sector evidence only, with no analyst or consensus input. The breakout list also added no new names today; its most recent entries are from Friday.
| Sector | Momentum | Accel | 1W | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping · BOAT | +9.57 | −26.52 | +1.41% | Still first on the long windows, flat on the short ones |
| Cloud · SKYY | +6.25 | −35.22 | +0.20% | Fastest deceleration in the table, again |
| Software · IGV | +5.64 | −23.65 | −0.51% | Up 1.68% today after a soft week |
| Crypto · BLOK | +5.10 | −8.72 | +4.55% | Mildest deceleration of the five leaders |
| Semiconductors · SOXX | +4.79 | −15.82 | +10.23% | Sharpest short-window turn in the table: +2.85% today, +9.20% in three sessions |
| Artificial Intelligence · AIQ | +3.87 | −14.51 | +3.20% | Positive across every window but one |
| Energy · XLE | +0.80 | −13.35 | −2.38% | Ninth by momentum, relative strength now negative (−1.84). This is where twenty-one of the thirty-six prior picks sit |
Eleven of 39 sectors carry positive momentum and all five leaders are decelerating, so this is still a narrow tape — but the composition has changed. The rotation engine now points at Technology (early rotation, score 70, institutions 63% buy-side) and Communication Services (score 50, institutions 85% buy-side), and the trend scan fired 18 buys against 4 sells, the inverse of Friday. Energy, which has supplied most of this desk's history, has rolled over on every short window.
The cleanest technical profile in the entire scan and the highest-scoring name in Information Technology. Perfect stage health — SATA 10 weekly and 10 daily — Mansfield relative strength +44.0 and rising 4.7 this week, eighteen weeks into Stage 2, and it is making a new 52-week high as this page is built rather than recovering toward one. It is the only finalist the signal screener rates a buy, and its sub-industry (software) is one of the five leaders. Counter-evidence, and it is not small: RBRK sits on the rotation list, and rotation-list membership is the strongest negative signal this desk has measured — Its dark-pool score is zero, so there is no institutional accumulation evidence either way, and it sits outside the 157-name universe the timing scan covers, so there is no crossover confirmation. RSI 66.9 — high but not overbought.
The one finalist that is clean on every negative signal the ledger has found. It sits in semiconductors, the sector with the sharpest short-window turn in the table; Mansfield relative strength is +35.4 and rising 6.5, the fastest weekly gain among the three; and it fired a fresh daily buy crossover this morning at $323.26, with the stock still sitting on that level rather than extended above it. Crucially it is not on the rotation list, so it does not carry the book's strongest negative marker. RSI 57.2 is the lowest of the three, leaving room. Counter-evidence: it is 35% below its 52-week high, so this is a recovery inside a wide base rather than a breakout to new ground; the signal screener rates it hold, not buy; and its twelve-month momentum score is strong mainly because the stock fell a long way first.
Read the caveats first on this one. What it has: Mansfield relative strength +39.9, a fresh daily buy crossover this morning at $227.58 with the stock trading just above it, a dark-pool score of 49 and tagged accumulating — the only finalist with any institutional-accumulation evidence at all — and it appears on three of the four screens. RSI 53.6 is the coolest of the three. What argues against it: relative strength is flat, up only 0.13 this week, so the strength is historical rather than current; the signal screener rates it hold; it is 24% below its 52-week high; and like RBRK it sits on the rotation list. It is ranked third for those reasons, and third place on this desk has historically done no worse than first.
Two of the three carry a fresh daily buy crossover, which has never happened before on this desk — every one of the thirty-six prior picks was logged without timing confirmation. That makes today the first real test of the claim that a name clearing the funnel and showing a fresh crossover is the tightest setup available.
| Name | Structure | Strike | Expiry | Premium | Below spot | Ann. ROI | IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | Cash-secured put | 210 | 09-25 | $2.11 | 8.1% | 91.7% | 88 |
| NBIS | Cash-secured put | 215 | 09-25 | $3.15 | 5.9% | 133.7% | 88 |
| RBRK | No contracts in the income screener — outside its high-IV large-cap universe. | ||||||
| ALAB | No contracts in the income screener — same reason. | ||||||
The income screeners want high-implied-volatility large-caps; the Stage-2 funnel produces mid-cap momentum names. They share a dashboard, not a universe, so most finalists will never have a matching structure. Both NBIS puts are rated hold rather than buy by the entry model, and four days to expiry with 88 implied volatility is a short, sharp position, not a carry. The bull-put-spread table's best-scoring setups today are in MSTR and SPCX, neither of which is on this list. No LEAP call surfaced; that strategy's record here is −$90.8k.
| Cohort | Mean alpha | Median | Beat SPY | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 · 7 | +5.04% | −4.21% | 3/7 | CVI +29.2% | ESTC −11.1% |
| 2026-09-01 · 7 | −2.91% | +0.49% | 4/7 | VLO +12.4% | SLB −16.8% |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 | −13.39% | −15.30% | 0/3 | VET −9.2% | HP −15.7% |
| 2026-09-03 · 3 | −5.10% | −3.68% | 0/3 | CRGY −3.1% | ZYME −8.5% |
| 2026-09-08 · 3 | −5.06% | −4.85% | 0/3 | ELPC −0.0% | MTDR −10.3% |
| 2026-09-11 · 3 | +1.71% | +0.15% | 2/3 | TEN +12.3% | UROY −7.3% |
| 2026-09-15 · 3 | −8.30% | −5.80% | 0/3 | SUN −4.9% | SM −14.2% |
| 2026-09-16 · 2 | −1.91% | −1.91% | 0/2 | MPC −0.4% | LPG −3.4% |
| 2026-09-17 · 3 | −0.83% | −1.19% | 1/3 | TRMD +1.8% | IOVA −3.1% |
| 2026-09-18 · 2 | −1.10% | −1.10% | 0/2 | ABCL −0.6% | CMBT −1.6% |
| All 36 | −2.33% | −3.56% | 10/36 | trimmed −3.05% · ex top two −3.83% | |
Total alpha across 36 picks is −84.0 points, a mean of −2.33% and a median of −3.56%, with only 10 of 36 beating the index. One week ago the headline was positive. The reason is Energy: twenty-one of these picks are Energy names and the sector has rolled over on every short window.
The tail has changed sign along with it. On September 1st two names carried the whole drag; today the two best names, CVI at +29.2 and FRNM at +17.0, contribute +46.2 points to a book that is −84.0 overall. Remove them and the other 34 average −3.83%, median −3.95%. The trimmed mean is −3.05%. In other words the weakness is broad, not concentrated — which is the more honest and the worse reading of the two. Friday's two names are both slightly behind after one session.