Two names today. The broad market reading held at 81, its best level in weeks, but every one of the five leading groups is slowing and only twelve of thirty-nine are rising. The strongest candidates clustered in energy again, and the record is emphatic that energy-only lists do badly, so one energy name is carried and one technology name alongside it. The record: fifty-seven tracked picks, 1.04% behind the index on average, with 25 of 57 beating it.
The broad market reading is 81 with volatility at 15.4, which on its own would allow a full list. Underneath it, all five strongest groups are decelerating and only 12 of 39 are rising. The screens agree the tape is thin: the signal screener's best composite today is 55.9, and nothing scores above 56.
Energy was the only rotation target with positive momentum, and it supplied four of the strongest candidates. That is exactly the cohort shape the record punishes. The two worst cohorts ever recorded here — 2026-09-02 at −12.8% and 2026-09-15 at −9.7% — were both all-energy. So one energy name is carried, not four, and a technology name fills the second slot.
Data freshness: all screening data is from this morning, and the news and analyst cross-check was available again today after three sessions without it.
Shipping (+8.34), cloud (+6.45) and software (+6.05) top the momentum table, with energy fourth (+3.84) and commodities fifth (+3.60). Every one of them is decelerating, cloud most steeply at −36.2. Semiconductors are down 2.3% this morning and quantum 1.4%. Energy is the standout on the day — refiners are strongly bid, with Marathon +3.8%, Valero +3.2% and crude tankers +5.3%.
The only groups with positive acceleration are defensive or beaten-down: solar (+18.3 from −6.63 momentum), utilities (+12.2), electric vehicles (+11.7), building products (+11.0) and staples (+3.1). Staples is the single group that is rising on both measures, which is why the rotation engine scores Consumer Defensive at 95 and calls it BUILDING. None of its names cleared the relative-strength bar, so it is a rotation to watch rather than to buy.
The highest relative strength outside energy, by a wide margin. Relative strength 95.5 against a next-best non-energy reading of 51.2, stage 2, perfect 10/10 stage scores on both the weekly and daily, and a Strong Buy analyst consensus. Momentum reading 7 of 10. Caveats: this is the only finalist on a single screen — it is not a rotation gem and did not make the signal screener's top band, so there is no second-source confirmation. It has run 178% since entering Stage 2 twenty-nine weeks ago, and its group (software) is the third-fastest decelerating on the board at −27.7. At $811M it is the smaller of the two names.
The most corroborated name on the board, and the one energy slot. Relative strength 63.8, stage 2, 10/9 stage scores, and it appears on three screens — Stage 2, the rotation gems and the signal screener, where it rates buy at composite 52.0. Smart score 9 of 10, analyst consensus Buy, news sentiment 0.8, and the strongest institutional reading on the board at 0.86. A real catalyst today: Mizuho raised its price target to $457 from $304, keeping a Neutral rating, citing higher and longer-lasting refining margins — which is a margin thesis rather than a one-day spike. Caveats: RSI 74.7 is above the flag line; it has run 125% since entering Stage 2 thirty-six weeks ago; and it trades right at that raised target. Energy is the sector this record has punished most.
Both income screens were rebuilt by this run: 725 cash-secured puts across 135 names and 146 bull put spreads (65 unique). Neither finalist has a matching structure. That is expected rather than a failure: the income screens want high-volatility large caps, and the Stage 2 funnel produces mid-cap momentum names — two systems sharing a dashboard. Today's spread screen is led by NBIS, MSTR, ORCL and CRWV; the put screen by MU, NVDA, IBIT, TSLA and SPCX. No LEAP call surfaced, which is as it should be given that strategy's record.
This page first said ECO is really an energy name and that counting it as Industrials would have let a fourth energy name past the sector cap. That was asserted, not measured, and it is wrong. Daily-return correlation over 91 sessions puts ECO at 0.09 against energy, −0.09 against industrials and 0.60 against shipping — and at 0.10 against Marathon, the refiner it was supposedly doubling up with.
It is not a one-off. All seven tankers in this record cluster the same way: 0.66 against shipping, 0.15 against energy, 0.14 against the refiners, while the refiners sit at 0.55 against energy and 0.09 against shipping. Shipping is its own exposure. A tanker beside a refiner is not the concentration the cap exists to stop; two tankers filed under different sector labels is.
| Cohort | Mean alpha | Median | Beat SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 · 7 | +4.56% | +2.16% | 4/7 | CVI +40.1 carries it |
| 2026-09-01 · 7 | −1.53% | +2.94% | 4/7 | mean and median disagree |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 | −12.83% | −11.55% | 0/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-03 · 3 | −9.14% | −8.44% | 0/3 | CRGY, ZYME, PFE |
| 2026-09-08 · 3 | −2.96% | −7.40% | 1/3 | ELPC the only winner |
| 2026-09-11 · 3 | −1.78% | −3.07% | 1/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-15 · 3 | −9.65% | −9.63% | 0/3 | all energy |
| 2026-09-16 · 2 | +2.50% | +2.50% | 1/2 | MPC flagged here, +12.0% |
| 2026-09-17 · 3 | +10.58% | +6.52% | 3/3 | best cohort |
| 2026-09-18 · 2 | −2.50% | −2.50% | 0/2 | ABCL, CMBT |
| 2026-09-21 · 3 | +8.06% | +7.91% | 3/3 | RBRK, ALAB, NBIS |
| 2026-09-23 · 3 | −3.32% | −2.51% | 1/3 | RNG, MRNA, OMER |
| 2026-09-25 · 2 | −0.64% | −0.64% | 1/2 | SN, LCUT |
| 2026-09-28 · 3 | −7.09% | −4.87% | 0/3 | DGII, HUM, RVMD |
| 2026-09-30 · 1 | −1.96% | −1.96% | 0/1 | AMN |
| 2026-10-02 · 2 | −0.38% | −0.38% | 1/2 | SMTC, NAT |
| 2026-10-05 · 3 | +3.12% | +2.99% | 2/3 | IMOS, NTAP, DAC |
| 2026-10-06 · 3 | −0.58% | +1.05% | 2/3 | OKTA, FTNT, CRL |
| 2026-10-07 · 1 | +0.30% | +0.30% | 1/1 | AMD, one session old |
| All 57 | −1.04% | −1.87% | 25/57 | trimmed −1.34% · −59.2 pts |
| 2026-10-08 · 2 | — | — | — | flagged today · first reading next session |
2026-09-02 at −12.8% and 2026-09-15 at −9.7%, neither with a single name beating the index. Both were three energy names flagged on one day. That is the single clearest pattern in nineteen sessions, and it is the reason today carries one energy name out of four that qualified.
The tails remain large and cut both ways. The best two names (CVI +40.1, TRMD +21.8) and the worst two (GEN −28.6, PRGS −21.4) are each worth about 60 points. Remove the best two and the book is 2.20% behind; remove the worst two and it is 0.17% behind. The trimmed mean of −1.34% is the honest figure, and the book is still behind its benchmark.