Options AI Screener Desk

Session 2026-09-21 · Mon built 10:52 ET

Three names, and for the first time since this desk started the list is not led by Energy. Money is rotating into technology: semiconductors have put on ten percent in a week and institutions are running sixty-three percent buy-side in the sector. The regime reading clears comfortably, but every leading sector is still decelerating, so the list is capped at three. Two chip names that would have qualified were excluded for being up more than eight percent before lunch. And a rule this page announced on Friday is being withdrawn today — it did not survive its own control test.

Data freshness

The full scan refreshed this morning: the core stage list, the signal screener, the sector table, the rotation list, the trend scan and both options-income tables are all current as of 10:41 ET. Two outside research feeds — analyst ratings and institutional options flow — could not be reached this session, so the finalist notes below rest on price, trend and sector evidence only, with no analyst or consensus input. The breakout list also added no new names today; its most recent entries are from Friday.

Gates

Regime clears; leadership caps the list at three; intraday heat cut two chip names.
1 · RegimeFull list 75 · risk-onComfortably above the 70 line and the label agrees with the number today. VIX 14.7, five-day VIX −13.8%.
2 · LeadershipFired all top 5 negativeBOAT −26.5, SKYY −35.2, IGV −23.7, BLOK −8.7, SOXX −15.8. List capped at three. Eighth session running.
3 · Intraday heatFired · 2 cut >8% on the sessionINTC +11.2% and ARM +12.5% excluded. Both cleared every other leg; both were bought hard this morning.
3b · EarningsHeld none within 3No finalist reports through 09-26.
3c · RSIAll below 70 66.9 / 57.2 / 53.6None overbought, so the rule would not have cut anything today — which is just as well, because it is being withdrawn below.
4 · BreadthNarrow 11 of 39 · 28.2%Below half, so sizing leans on Gate 1. Wider than Friday's record-low 17.9%, and the improvement is entirely in technology.

Where money is moving

Out of Energy, into semiconductors and software.
SectorMomentumAccel1WRead
Shipping · BOAT+9.57−26.52+1.41%Still first on the long windows, flat on the short ones
Cloud · SKYY+6.25−35.22+0.20%Fastest deceleration in the table, again
Software · IGV+5.64−23.65−0.51%Up 1.68% today after a soft week
Crypto · BLOK+5.10−8.72+4.55%Mildest deceleration of the five leaders
Semiconductors · SOXX+4.79−15.82+10.23%Sharpest short-window turn in the table: +2.85% today, +9.20% in three sessions
Artificial Intelligence · AIQ+3.87−14.51+3.20%Positive across every window but one
Energy · XLE+0.80−13.35−2.38%Ninth by momentum, relative strength now negative (−1.84). This is where twenty-one of the thirty-six prior picks sit

Eleven of 39 sectors carry positive momentum and all five leaders are decelerating, so this is still a narrow tape — but the composition has changed. The rotation engine now points at Technology (early rotation, score 70, institutions 63% buy-side) and Communication Services (score 50, institutions 85% buy-side), and the trend scan fired 18 buys against 4 sells, the inverse of Friday. Energy, which has supplied most of this desk's history, has rolled over on every short window.

Finalists

Three — the cap Gate 2 allows. All three carry relative strength above 20, the one measure that is still separating.
RBRK$112.25 · Rubrik · Systems software

The cleanest technical profile in the entire scan and the highest-scoring name in Information Technology. Perfect stage health — SATA 10 weekly and 10 daily — Mansfield relative strength +44.0 and rising 4.7 this week, eighteen weeks into Stage 2, and it is making a new 52-week high as this page is built rather than recovering toward one. It is the only finalist the signal screener rates a buy, and its sub-industry (software) is one of the five leaders. Counter-evidence, and it is not small: RBRK sits on the rotation list, and rotation-list membership is the strongest negative signal this desk has measured — Its dark-pool score is zero, so there is no institutional accumulation evidence either way, and it sits outside the 157-name universe the timing scan covers, so there is no crossover confirmation. RSI 66.9 — high but not overbought.

Stage2
SATA w/d10 / 10
Mansfield+44.0
RSI66.9
From 52w high0.0%
Today+5.2%
RS +44 ✓SATA 10/10 ✓New high ✓On rotation listNo timing scan
ALAB$322.52 · Astera Labs · Semiconductors

The one finalist that is clean on every negative signal the ledger has found. It sits in semiconductors, the sector with the sharpest short-window turn in the table; Mansfield relative strength is +35.4 and rising 6.5, the fastest weekly gain among the three; and it fired a fresh daily buy crossover this morning at $323.26, with the stock still sitting on that level rather than extended above it. Crucially it is not on the rotation list, so it does not carry the book's strongest negative marker. RSI 57.2 is the lowest of the three, leaving room. Counter-evidence: it is 35% below its 52-week high, so this is a recovery inside a wide base rather than a breakout to new ground; the signal screener rates it hold, not buy; and its twelve-month momentum score is strong mainly because the stock fell a long way first.

Stage2
SATA w/d7 / 8
Mansfield+35.4
RS chg+6.47
RSI57.2
Today+6.4%
Leading sector ✓Fresh BUY crossover ✓Not on rotation list ✓−35% from high
NBIS$227.79 · Nebius Group · AI infrastructure

Read the caveats first on this one. What it has: Mansfield relative strength +39.9, a fresh daily buy crossover this morning at $227.58 with the stock trading just above it, a dark-pool score of 49 and tagged accumulating — the only finalist with any institutional-accumulation evidence at all — and it appears on three of the four screens. RSI 53.6 is the coolest of the three. What argues against it: relative strength is flat, up only 0.13 this week, so the strength is historical rather than current; the signal screener rates it hold; it is 24% below its 52-week high; and like RBRK it sits on the rotation list. It is ranked third for those reasons, and third place on this desk has historically done no worse than first.

Stage2B
SATA w/d7 / 8
Mansfield+39.9
RS chg+0.13
Dark pool49
Today+1.9%
Fresh BUY crossover ✓Dark pool 49 ✓RS flatOn rotation list

Two of the three carry a fresh daily buy crossover, which has never happened before on this desk — every one of the thirty-six prior picks was logged without timing confirmation. That makes today the first real test of the claim that a name clearing the funnel and showing a fresh crossover is the tightest setup available.

Options structures

One of three has a matching setup. That is the normal result, not a failure.
NameStructureStrikeExpiryPremiumBelow spotAnn. ROIIV
NBISCash-secured put21009-25$2.118.1%91.7%88
NBISCash-secured put21509-25$3.155.9%133.7%88
RBRKNo contracts in the income screener — outside its high-IV large-cap universe.
ALABNo contracts in the income screener — same reason.

The income screeners want high-implied-volatility large-caps; the Stage-2 funnel produces mid-cap momentum names. They share a dashboard, not a universe, so most finalists will never have a matching structure. Both NBIS puts are rated hold rather than buy by the entry model, and four days to expiry with 88 implied volatility is a short, sharp position, not a carry. The bull-put-spread table's best-scoring setups today are in MSTR and SPCX, neither of which is on this list. No LEAP call surfaced; that strategy's record here is −$90.8k.

Dropped

Two on a hard gate, the rest on the evidence.
INTCVetoed at +11.2% on the session. It was otherwise the strongest candidate on the board: Mansfield +54.0 rising 6.8, SATA daily 10, and a dark-pool score of 68 tagged strong accumulation, the highest reading anywhere in today's scan. Buying the third hour of an eleven-percent day is the specific mistake this gate exists to prevent.
ARMVetoed at +12.5% on the session. Mansfield +40.0 rising 9.0, Stage 2, semiconductors. Same reason as INTC, one percent worse.
LITEMansfield +44.4 and SATA 8/9, rated buy, and it was the closest call for the third slot. Dropped because it is on the rotation list, has no timing confirmation, and is 1,148% above its last Stage-2 entry — the most mature name considered. NBIS took the slot on the crossover.
STX · SNDKMansfield +50.2 and +83.7, the two highest readings in the scan. Both sit on the rotation list, both are Stage 2B at +792% and +3,739% since Stage-2 entry, and SNDK's relative strength is falling 5.0 this week — the strength is already spent.
META · WBDTop of the rotation list and tied at the top of the signal screener, both rated buy. Both fail the only selection rule this ledger supports: Mansfield relative strength of 3.0 and 4.2, far below the 20 line. Large and liquid is not the same as leading.
P · TENB · DDOG · SIMOAll on the rotation list, all rated hold by the signal screener, none with timing confirmation. Everpure (P) at SATA 9/9 was the strongest of them and would be first in line if a fourth slot existed.
VRME · OPTXUp 27% and 20% on the session on sub-$300m market caps. Gate 3 excludes them and the size would anyway.
SMTCRe-qualified on the Technology rotation, but it was flagged on 09-17. Already carried — not re-flagged inside ten sessions.

Thirty-six picks, ten flagging sessions

Alpha versus SPY from each flag-date close, re-priced at 10:41 ET.
CohortMean alphaMedianBeat SPYBestWorst
2026-08-31 · 7+5.04%−4.21%3/7CVI +29.2%ESTC −11.1%
2026-09-01 · 7−2.91%+0.49%4/7VLO +12.4%SLB −16.8%
2026-09-02 · 3−13.39%−15.30%0/3VET −9.2%HP −15.7%
2026-09-03 · 3−5.10%−3.68%0/3CRGY −3.1%ZYME −8.5%
2026-09-08 · 3−5.06%−4.85%0/3ELPC −0.0%MTDR −10.3%
2026-09-11 · 3+1.71%+0.15%2/3TEN +12.3%UROY −7.3%
2026-09-15 · 3−8.30%−5.80%0/3SUN −4.9%SM −14.2%
2026-09-16 · 2−1.91%−1.91%0/2MPC −0.4%LPG −3.4%
2026-09-17 · 3−0.83%−1.19%1/3TRMD +1.8%IOVA −3.1%
2026-09-18 · 2−1.10%−1.10%0/2ABCL −0.6%CMBT −1.6%
All 36−2.33%−3.56%10/36trimmed −3.05% · ex top two −3.83%

The book has turned decisively negative, and the tail is now propping it up

Total alpha across 36 picks is −84.0 points, a mean of −2.33% and a median of −3.56%, with only 10 of 36 beating the index. One week ago the headline was positive. The reason is Energy: twenty-one of these picks are Energy names and the sector has rolled over on every short window.

The tail has changed sign along with it. On September 1st two names carried the whole drag; today the two best names, CVI at +29.2 and FRNM at +17.0, contribute +46.2 points to a book that is −84.0 overall. Remove them and the other 34 average −3.83%, median −3.95%. The trimmed mean is −3.05%. In other words the weakness is broad, not concentrated — which is the more honest and the worse reading of the two. Friday's two names are both slightly behind after one session.