Two names, both overbought, both in a sector that just had a bad day. Crude fell on a surprise U.S. inventory build and oil producers dropped 4–7%, so the desk carried only the two Energy names whose case does not rest on the oil price — a refiner earning record margins and an LPG shipper that rose on the day. Yesterday's three Energy picks all trailed the index today, and that is reported below rather than smoothed over.
The core scan, the signal screener, the breakout list, the gem list and the options-income table all refreshed this morning, and the market-regime reading is back to a clean same-day value. One feed did not land: the defined-risk spread screener is still two sessions old, so there are no spread structures on this page. This page was published later than usual today; the data underneath it is from this morning.
| Sector | Momentum | Accel | 1D | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping · BOAT | +11.02 | −22.70 | +0.61% | Still first, still fading hardest |
| Commodities · DBC | +7.85 | −13.75 | −0.50% | Second, fading |
| Cloud · SKYY | +6.39 | −29.90 | +0.59% | Up to third on a weak list |
| Software · IGV | +6.07 | −15.86 | 0.00% | Fourth |
| Energy · XLE | +3.78 | −13.22 | −1.87% | Down from fourth to fifth on the crude reversal |
| Natural Gas · FCG | +3.46 | −9.23 | −3.32% | Worst day in the top ten |
| Solar · TAN | −10.07 | +16.31 | +0.55% | Fastest accelerant again, from the bottom |
Yesterday this page warned that the Energy bid was an oil shock, not a rotation. Today crude fell on an unexpected U.S. inventory build: Energy −1.9%, Natural Gas −3.3%, and producers such as SM, APA and PR down 6–7%. The three sell crossovers the timing scan fired this morning were all Energy names. That is why today's two finalists were chosen for having a case that does not depend on the crude price — and why the ledger section below shows the Energy finding weakening.
A refiner, not a producer: it buys crude and sells fuel, and crack spreads are above $60 a barrel on supply disruption and tight inventories, so a falling crude price helps its margin rather than hurting it. It held flat today while producers fell 6%. Mansfield RS +60.6, SATA 10 on both timeframes, 33 weeks into Stage 2. Confirmation is four blocks of $25–35M on the 14th and 15th, the latest at $410.84 — right at today's price, so those buyers are not underwater. Counter-evidence: RSI 78.3, the highest this desk has carried; up 144% year to date; trading 7% above the average analyst target; and the blocks are volume-weighted prints, so their direction is inferred rather than known.
A shipper of liquefied petroleum gas, paid on freight rates rather than the commodity price — and the only candidate that rose today, +3.1% while its sector fell. Mansfield RS +54.2, SATA 10/10, 36 weeks in Stage 2, and it sits in the Shipping theme that still leads the sector table. Confirmation is an 89,100-share print worth $4.9M on the 14th, about 16% of a normal day's volume, following two smaller prints on the 11th; price has risen from $55.38 to $58.58 since. Counter-evidence: RSI 75.8; up 133% year to date; above the average analyst target; no company-specific catalyst was found; and one of the 89,100-share prints was later cancelled, so the real block count is smaller than it first looks.
Neither has a fresh timing crossover; both sit outside the 157-name universe that scan covers, so that is "not confirmed", not "no signal". A third slot was available and deliberately left empty.
The cash-secured-put table refreshed today, but the defined-risk spread screener has not refreshed since Monday, and neither finalist appears in today's put table. Rather than show a two-day-old spread as if it were live, this section is empty. If the spread refresh is being run manually, it has been missed twice in a row.
| Cohort | Mean alpha | Median | Beat SPY | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 · 7 | +2.88% | +0.27% | 4/7 | CVI +26.3% | ESTC −13.7% |
| 2026-09-01 · 7 | −0.33% | −2.19% | 3/7 | VLO +11.0% | SLB −11.9% |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 | −6.27% | −6.81% | 0/3 | VET −2.4% | HP −9.7% |
| 2026-09-03 · 3 | −2.72% | −2.84% | 1/3 | CRGY +5.4% | ZYME −10.8% |
| 2026-09-08 · 3 | −0.87% | −1.16% | 1/3 | ELPC +0.2% | MTDR −1.6% |
| 2026-09-11 · 3 | +3.38% | +1.24% | 2/3 | TEN +11.8% | UROY −2.8% |
| 2026-09-15 · 3 | −3.02% | −2.10% | 0/3 | SUN −2.0% | SM −4.9% |
| All 29 | −0.37% | −2.10% | 11/29 | trimmed −1.00% · ex top two −1.87% | |
Total alpha across 29 picks is −10.6 points, and CVI (+26.3) and TRMD (+13.5) together contribute +39.8. Without those two the other 27 average −1.87%, median −2.19%. Yesterday's cohort — three Energy names carried on an oil spike — went 0 for 3 against the index in one session as that spike reversed. Eleven of 29 beat SPY. There is still no evidence of a general edge; there is evidence that a couple of large winners can make it look like one.