One name today, and the reason is worth more than the name. The market checks allowed up to three; the desk's own rules cut it to one. The strongest candidate on every measure was excluded because this desk already flagged it eight sessions ago and a second entry on the same move is not new evidence. A second was dropped on a downgrade, a third because the one confirmation channel available today could not reach it. The record improved sharply: across forty-seven tracked picks the book is now 2.31% behind the index on the mean with nineteen beating it, up from 3.25% behind and sixteen yesterday.
The market reading sits in the middle band, so the list was capped at four before anything else, then cut to three because all five leading groups are decelerating and only eight of thirty-nine are advancing at all. Five names then cleared the strength test. Four were removed by rules, not by preference.
The one that hurts is the best of them. It leads on every measure the desk tracks — and this desk already flagged it eight sessions ago. The standing rule is that a name is not re-flagged inside ten sessions, because a second entry on the same move is a duplicate observation, not new evidence. It stays out. A rule that only bites when it is convenient is not a rule, and this one is the reason the performance record below can be trusted at all.
Semiconductors still lead on momentum (+4.69) but the whole top of the table is losing ground quickly — cloud at −40.2 acceleration, shipping −31.3, semis −29.7. Energy has flattened to +0.27 momentum, tenth of thirty-nine and negative on relative strength. Below the leaders the market is uniformly negative, with solar at −10.4 and uranium −8.2.
One genuine improvement over Monday: the rotation screen named Technology and Healthcare as its target sectors and produced five Technology names against four Healthcare. On Monday nine of eleven were Healthcare while Healthcare was negative on momentum. The screen is now pointing where the tape is, which removes the concentration worry that shaped the last list.
The only candidate that cleared every rule. Relative strength 32.95, comfortably above the one threshold this desk selects on, and it appears on both source screens — the rotation list at a gem score of 50.1 and the buy screen. Stage 2, daily strength above weekly (9 vs 6), technicals read Strong Buy overall with all twelve moving averages positive, and it is outperforming the index intraday at +1.60% against +0.52%. Earnings are 29 days out, well clear.
Both income screens were rebuilt by this run — 652 cash-secured puts and 389 bull put spreads — and the finalist appears in neither. Those screens want large, high-volatility index names; this funnel produces mid-cap trend names.
| Cohort | Mean alpha | Median | Beat SPY | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 · 7 | +1.28% | +0.54% | 4/7 | CVI +24.8% | GEN −28.8% |
| 2026-09-01 · 7 | −2.66% | +1.65% | 4/7 | CRWD +14.9% | SLB −18.9% |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 | −16.95% | −15.38% | 0/3 | VET −14.0% | HP −21.5% |
| 2026-09-03 · 3 | −4.77% | −6.37% | 1/3 | PFE +0.2% | ZYME −8.1% |
| 2026-09-08 · 3 | −7.98% | −6.31% | 0/3 | ELPC −2.3% | MTDR −15.3% |
| 2026-09-11 · 3 | −4.30% | −7.21% | 1/3 | TEN +1.7% | UROY −7.4% |
| 2026-09-15 · 3 | −11.21% | −9.30% | 0/3 | CVE −7.3% | SM −17.1% |
| 2026-09-16 · 2 | −5.88% | −5.88% | 0/2 | MPC −4.2% | LPG −7.5% |
| 2026-09-17 · 3 | +12.76% | +2.51% | 2/3 | IOVA +38.1% | SMTC −2.3% |
| 2026-09-18 · 2 | +5.52% | +5.52% | 1/2 | ABCL +17.5% | CMBT −6.5% |
| 2026-09-21 · 3 | +6.14% | +4.96% | 3/3 | ALAB +9.3% | RBRK +4.1% |
| 2026-09-23 · 3 | −3.90% | −5.05% | 1/3 | MRNA +0.9% | OMER −7.6% |
| 2026-09-25 · 2 | −2.96% | −2.96% | 1/2 | SN +1.8% | LCUT −7.7% |
| 2026-09-28 · 3 | −0.50% | −0.29% | 1/3 | RVMD +1.4% | HUM −2.6% |
| All 47 | −2.31% | −3.97% | 19/47 | trimmed −2.81% · ex top two −3.81% · −108.4 pts | |
| 2026-09-30 · 1 | — | — | — | flagged today · first measurable reading next session | |
Yesterday the book was 3.25% behind the index with 16 of 47 beating it. Today it is 2.31% behind with 19 of 47, and cumulative drag has fallen from −189.9 points on Monday to −108.4. Four cohorts are now positive, and the 09-17 cohort has gone to +12.76% mean on the back of IOVA at +38.1% alpha.
Apply the same trimming to a good day as to a bad one. Removing the two best names leaves −3.81%, worse than the headline, and the trimmed mean is −2.81%. So this is a genuine improvement in a book that still sits below its benchmark, not a turn. The 09-02 cohort remains at −16.95% and three cohorts are still worse than −7%.